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Option Strats

Selling Naked Put that goes ITM

• • Sell stock/fut

  • Sell call spread

  • Sell OTM or ATM call - make a short strangle

  • Roll out to the next month, same strike

  • Roll out and down for credit or even money

  • Buy a cheap OTM put to reduce capital requirements

  • Sell a call in a correlated underlying

Selling Naked Call that goes ITM

• • Buy stock/fut

  • Sell an OTM or ATM put - make a short strangle

  • Roll out to the next month

  • Roll up and out for a credit

  • Buy higher strike cheap call.

  • Watch for binary or dividend call

  • Maintain long bias portfolio

  • Sell wide put spreads

  • Cover a portion of the trade.

Investing Ideas

GLD or IAU

You can split your portfolio in half. Every January, take a look at the current price. If it's above the 12-mo moving average, you buy with that half of the portfolio or stay long. If it's below, you sell. Then in July, you do the same thing for the other half. So rather than being ALL IN or ALL OUT at any given moment based on a dynamic moving average, our total portfolio may be 100% long, 50% long, or 0% long at any moment in time. We make a maximum of just two trades per year.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2147103-how-far-the-gold-sell-off-could-go-and-strategies-thatll-save-you?ifp=0

Strategy #1 For Active Traders

• • Be long gold at all times when above its 12-month moving average.

  • Sell immediately after a monthly close below the 12-mo SMA, and buy immediately after a monthly close above it.

  • When the projected 10-year rate of return for gold rises above 5%, start getting aggressive. Use leverage, or move to a 100% allocation.

  • Ride that trend until secular valuations become unfavorable again (<0% 10-year projection).

  • When not long gold, be long a cash/debt instrument of your choice. T-Bills, TIPS, Fed Funds, etc.

  • If you're lazy, just do this two times a year with two halves of your portfolio.

Strategy #2 For Passive Investors

• • Split your portfolio into 10 buckets (or 4).

  • Every January, look at the 10-year projected rate of return. If positive, buy or stay long for that bucket.

  • If negative, sell or stay flat for that bucket.

  • Each bucket should have at most one trade every 10 years.

  • The entire portfolio should have at most one trade every year.

  • When not long gold, be long a cash/debt instrument of your choice. T-Bills, TIPS, Fed Funds, etc.

Strategy #3 For Aggressive Investors

• • Use a 12-month moving average as your basis for being flat or long.

  • During windows after which gold has reached an undervalued extreme, use a leveraged 1.5x long position.

  • Stop using leverage once fair value has been established or the forward returns become negative.

  • When not long gold, be long a cash/debt instrument of your choice. T-Bills, TIPS, Fed Funds, etc.

Market Tops

Distribution Day - 1 or more of the major market indices closes > .2% lower on an increased volume from the previous day

    - 5 or 6 days of distribution over a 4-5 wk period can signal a change in direction

Tools2Use 

Calculate Price % Movement around BEP = 1-(Strike±Premium)/Price * 100

The New Checklist

• Follow the Market Persception, look at Macro charts/sectors first then drill down.

• Institutional ownership, look at the balance of stock ownership and the flow of ownership. Look in SEC. ie look for a huge share position that is beginning to sell. Insider buying/company repurchase

• Fundamentals: +ve Cashflow, price/sales, book value, debt

• Catalyst: eg. company restructering

MASTER CHECK-LIST FOR MAKING STOCK MARKET TRADES

• 1. IS THIS A SHORT TERM MOVE OR LONG TERM? This dictates which indices to follow.

  2. IS THE MARKET READY FOR ACTION? Have the buying or selling criteria been met?

  3. AM I SELECTING A STOCK BASED ON ITS ACCUMULATION PATTERN? Leave your emotions behind!

  4. DOES THE STOCK ALSO SHOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DAILY A/D LINE? Watch out if it doesn't.

  5. HAVE I SELECTED THIS STOCK BECAUSE ITS ACCUMULATION PATTERN AND LINE IS STRONGER THAN ALL THE OTHER STOCKS I FOLLOW? Select the best stock.

IF ALL CRITERIA ON THE CHECK-LIST HAVE BEEN MET, IT IS TIME FOR YOU TO CALL YOUR BROKER. UNTIL THEN, STAY OFF THAT PHONE AND SIT ON YOUR HANDS. IT'S MUCH CHEAPER.

THE BUFFET WAY

• 1. Brand Recognition. Well known company

  2. Earnings Performance. eps over last 5yrs continually growing and no -ve's

  3. Long Term debt. Debt to Equity > 2 times.

  4. ROE > 15%

  5. Capital Expenditure. Free Cashflow/share is +ve.

  6. Utilization of returned earnings > 12% (15%)

Help

AD Indicator Chartfilter(WAD) stockchartsstocktips

MACD Indicator stockcharts metaquotes incredible charts

TechCheck

- ADX direction ? (Momentum)

- Bollinger - overbought/oversold, once hit bands should reverse

- MACD - look for line crossings (? crossing above or below or on the line) look at overall trend

- OnBalanceVolume/MoneFlow (uptrend/downtrend)

- RSI - look at trend

- Stochastic Slow - overbought/oversold

- Volatility/ImplVolatility

- Compare with Index